Texas Senate Shock: Talarico's Unexpected Lead Over Paxton Raises Eyebrows
A new Texas Senate poll suggests Democrat James Talarico is opening up a modest but politically significant lead over Republican Ken Paxton in one of the most closely watched races of the 2026 midterms.Talarico led Paxton, who has been endorsed by President Donald Trump, 45 percent to 40 percent in a new Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) poll released Tuesday. Nick Maddux, a spokesman for Paxton's campaign, has dismissed the poll in an email to Newsweek, questioning the political background of the person behind it rather than engaging with its topline findings. Newsweek also reached out to Talarico’s campaign for comment via email on Tuesday morning and will update this story if a reply is received.Texas remains Republican-leaning, but the poll suggests Paxton may be underperforming the party’s usual statewide strength.Texas voters, both campaigns and national strategists are watching a race where independents, moderates and affordability concerns could decide the outcome.Why It MattersTexas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in decades, so any poll showing a Democrat ahead deserves caution. But this one is notable because Talarico is not only leading overall; he is doing so with the voters most likely to matter in a close statewide race.Key PointsTalarico’s lead is 2 points larger than in TPOR’s May poll, which showed him ahead 47 percent to 44 percent.He leads independents by 20 points and moderates by 34 points, according to the figures supplied by TPOR.Affordability is the top issue in the poll, and voters trust Talarico more than Paxton on cost-of-living questions.Prediction markets are more cautious: Kalshi showed Paxton defeating Talarico at about 59 percent in the supplied data, while Polymarket listed Paxton at 56 percent and Talarico at 44 percent....Talarico Leads By 5 PointsThe new Texas Public Opinion Research poll puts Talarico at 45 percent and Paxton at 40 percent in the U.S. Senate race. Fourteen percent of voters remain undecided.That lead is outside the narrowest definition of a toss-up but still not comfortable. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, and Election Day remains far enough away for the race to move. Still, the direction of travel matters. TPOR’s May poll had Talarico ahead by 3 points; this poll has him up by 5.Maddux told Newsweek in an emailed statement that Paxton's campaign would not comment on a survey conducted by someone he described as “the former Chief Strategy Officer of the Texas Democratic Party, a failed statewide candidate who lost his own race for Railroad Commissioner by double digits and who now runs a PAC whose stated purpose is electing Democrats in 2026.”He also criticized the Texas Tribune for highlighting the poll, saying its decision to do so reflected what he called the outlet’s “slanted leftist stance” more than the state of the race.Maddux said the campaign was focused on Election Day, arguing that “the only poll that matters is November 3rd.” He said Texans would ultimately judge Talarico on his record, citing his positions on reparations, youth gender-transition procedures, oil and gas jobs, and taxes.Maddux added that there was “no amount of panicked flip-flopping” that would save Talarico and predicted the Democrat’s campaign would end “exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas: a pipe dream.”The wider polling picture also suggests a competitive race. 270toWin’s Texas Senate polling page lists a recent average of three polls showing Talarico at 46.7 percent and Paxton at 44.3 percent.Independents And Moderates Are The Warning SignThe most important numbers for Paxton may be below the topline. Talarico leads independents 43 percent to 23 percent, with 29 percent still undecided. Among moderates, he leads 54 percent to 20 percent.Those figures point to a clear opening for Democrats. Talarico is not just consolidating his own side; he is winning voters who often decide competitive races. That does not make him the favorite in Texas, but it gives him a plausible path.Paxton still leads comfortably among somewhat conservative voters, 65 percent to 19 percent. That shows the Republican base has not disappeared. The issue for Paxton is whether enough softer conservatives and independents are willing to defect, stay home or remain undecided.When voters were asked which candidate was closer to their own political views, they picked Talarico over Paxton by 41 percent to 37 percent. That is a useful measure in a state where Democrats often struggle to avoid being cast as too liberal.Affordability Is Helping TalaricoCost of living is the central issue in the poll. Forty-four percent of voters ranked affordability and the cost of living as a top-two priority for elected officials in 2026. Health care access and costs, and Social Security and Medicare, followed at 21 percent each.On that issue, Talarico has the edge. Voters said he better understands the economic challenges facing working Texans by 42 percent to 35 percent. They also trusted him more to lower costs and improve their financial situation, 43 percent to 34 percent.That matters because affordability can cut across party lines. It also gives Talarico a way to speak to working-class voters without making the race only about national politics.The poll shows especially strong numbers for him among renters and voters without a college degree. Renters trusted Talarico over Paxton to lower costs by 48 percent to 25 percent. Voters without a college degree favored him by 10 points on lowering costs and by 13 points on understanding Texans’ economic challenges.Paxton’s Favorability Is A ProblemPaxton’s personal image appears to be weighing on him. The poll put his net favorability at minus 13, with 33 percent viewing him favorably and 46 percent unfavorably.Talarico, by contrast, had the best net favorability of any figure tested, at plus 12. Forty-three percent viewed him favorably and 31 percent unfavorably.That gap is one reason this race may be more competitive than Texas’s partisan lean alone would suggest. A generic Republican candidate tested at plus 7, meaning Paxton is running well behind the party brand in this survey.Still, favorability is not the same as a vote. Many voters may dislike a candidate and still back that candidate because of party loyalty, control of the Senate, or distrust of the other side. That is the central Republican hope in this race.The Demographic Map Still Looks Like TexasThe poll’s racial breakdown shows a familiar partisan divide. Talarico leads Black voters 71 percent to 8 percent and Latino voters 66 percent to 20 percent. Paxton leads white voters 53 percent to 33 percent.For Democrats, the encouraging sign is the size of Talarico’s Latino lead and his strength with independents. For Republicans, the counterpoint is simple: white voters remain a large part of the Texas electorate, and Paxton still has room to consolidate conservatives.That is why the undecided vote matters. Fourteen percent are uncommitted overall. Among undecided voters pushed to choose, more leaned toward Paxton than Talarico, though most remained unsure. If those voters break heavily Republican, the race tightens quickly.Other Texas Races Also Look CloseThe same poll found competitive statewide races beyond the Senate contest.In the governor’s race, Republican Greg Abbott led Democrat Gina Hinojosa 45 percent to 42 percent, with 10 percent undecided. In the attorney general’s race, Republican Mayes Middleton led Democrat Nathan Johnson 39 percent to 38 percent, with 18 percent undecided.Those numbers suggest the Senate result is not a total outlier. In this poll, Texas Republicans still lead or remain competitive, but Democrats are close enough to make several races worth watching.What Prediction Markets SayPrediction markets are less bullish on Talarico than the latest poll. Kalshi had Paxton defeating Talarico at around 59 percent in the supplied brief, while Polymarket listed Paxton at 56 percent and Talarico at 44 percent.These markets can be useful because they react quickly to polling, fundraising and campaign news, but they are not voter surveys. They can also reflect trader assumptions, market liquidity and Texas’s Republican lean as much as current voter sentiment.What Happens NextThe race now turns on whether Talarico’s numbers are durable or just a strong snapshot.His path is clear: keep the campaign focused on affordability, hold independents and moderates, and convert favorable impressions into votes. Paxton needs to pull the contest back toward party fundamentals, consolidate conservatives and make undecided voters choose the Republican column.For now, the poll shows a race that is genuinely competitive. In Texas, that alone is news.
