Republicans Stunned by New Polls—Is Their Midterm Grip Slipping?
Republicans have been dealt two new polling blows ahead of the 2026 midterms, with surveys from Emerson College and Fox News showing Democrats with large leads on the generic ballot as the November battle for control of Congress approaches.The development comes after several prior polls had suggested tightening races in the past week.Democrats led Republicans by 8 points on the generic ballot in the Fox News poll and 11 points in the Emerson College poll. Republicans currently hold power in both chambers of Congress, but Democrats are hopeful they can flip both the House and Senate this November.Midterms are often viewed as a referendum on the sitting president, and the party in the White House historically suffers losses. President Donald Trump saw Democrats flip 47 House seats in the 2018 midterms during his first term in office.Trump’s approval rating has slipped since his return to the Oval Office as poll respondents cite cost of living as a top concern. In the Emerson poll, for instance, Trump’s approval rating sat at only 39 percent, while 57 percent disapproved of his job performance.Democrats believe the sliding approval gives them an opening to win back swing voters and flip control of both chambers.Despite that optimism, the midterms are expected to remain tight and competitive. Democrats remain unpopular despite their generic ballot advantage, and Republicans are hoping to cast their rivals as too progressive, as the left flank has surged in recent primaries.Natalie Baldassarre, a Republican National Committee spokesperson, told Newsweek the midterm elections present a “clear choice between common sense versus communism in November, and Republicans remain on offense as we highlight President Trump’s achievements and present the facts to the American people.”Newsweek reached out to the Democratic National Committee and Democratic and Republican House campaign arms for comment via email....Two Polls Show Democrats With Large LeadsThe new poll from Emerson College released Thursday reveals Democrats have expanded their share of the generic ballot vote with 53 percent support compared to Republicans’ 42 percent. That 11-point advantage compares to a 10-point lead in June and a 9-point advantage in May. The poll surveyed 1,100 likely voters from July 19 to July 20 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.Democrats had only a 2-point lead in the same survey in December and a 6-point lead in January, according to Emerson data.Fox News’ poll showed Democrats’ support at 53 percent, while 46 percent of respondents said they would cast their ballots for Republicans.That marks an improvement for Democrats compared to April, when they had a 5-point lead, and January, when they had a 6-point lead.The Fox News poll surveyed 1,003 registered voters from July 17 to July 20 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. It was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research.The polling aggregate on RealClearPolitics on Thursday shows Democrats have expanded their polling lead to 5.2 points from 4.7 points on Monday. For comparison, Democrats had a 7.1 point lead ahead of Trump's first midterms on July 23, 2018, in RCP’s aggregate.What’s Behind Democrats’ Polling Lead? Analysts Weigh InTrump is central to why Democrats are building a polling lead, Raymond La Raja, professor of political science and co-director of the University of Massachusetts Amherst's polling program, told Newsweek.“Voters think he broke a promise about keeping down the cost of living. In fact, he made it worse with tariffs and the Iran war,” he said. “So it’s not really about what the Democrats have done to get the lead, but what the Republicans haven’t done.”Turnout will also be key, he said, noting that some Republicans may simply not show up to the polls in November.“But there is a factor that would temper any wave,” he said. “There are fewer competitive seats today than in 2018. And the Republicans have tried to insulate themselves with gerrymandering. We will see how well that works for them. A big wave could topple even those gerrymandered seats if they didn’t put enough Republican voters into them.”Republican strategist Jeff Burton told Newsweek that midterms are “always difficult for the party in power.”“The polls fluctuate this time of year. When the campaigning really begins, Republicans will be able to tout their accomplishments and show the disarray in the Democratic Party with the Democratic Socialist take over of their party,” he said. “The only thing more unpopular than Republicans right now are Democrats. And that will be made clear to voters come November." Meanwhile, Democratic strategist Emily Suttle-Braun told Newsweek the polling is a result of voters’ economic concerns.“Voters are living through Republican control of the White House, House, and Senate and they are miserable about their bank accounts. Three quarters of voters rate the economy negatively. Inflation is causing real hardship for most Americans and when one party has a monopoly on power and the country feels like this, voters know exactly who to blame,” she said.Prior Polls Showed Tightening RacePrior to those two polls, several recent surveys suggested a tightening race.A poll from The Washington Post and Ipsos found Democrats with only a 3-point lead, with 48 percent to Republicans’ 45 percent. It surveyed 2,092 registered voters from July 8 to July 13 and had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.2 points.An RMG Research poll, conducted among 1,000 registered voters from July 13 to July 14, showed Democrats up only 2 points, with 47 percent support to Republicans’ 45 percent. That marks a shift to Republicans from June, when Democrats led by 4 points, and May, when they led by 9 points.La Raja said voters don’t seem to like either party but have no alternatives.“When one party seems to be failing, they choose the other. That’s why Democrats are ahead in polls, even though they are just as unpopular as Republicans. The difference is that those who dislike both parties tell us they are more likely to vote for Democrats,” he said.Democrats’ Chances of Flipping House, Senate in MidtermsOverall, Democrats are favored to retake the House, but the Senate remains an uphill battle, according to polls and forecasters.In prediction markets, Democrats’ chances of flipping the House stood at 82 percent on Kalshi and 86 percent on Polymarket as of Thursday morning.Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends.They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.Democrats face tougher odds in the Senate, where Republicans have a 53-47 majority. They must flip four seats but have limited obvious flip opportunities this year.North Carolina, which Trump won by only 3 points in 2024, and Maine, which he lost by 7 points, present Democrats their best opportunities as they also defend seats in Trump-won states Georgia and Michigan.But no other seats are up for grabs that he outright lost or won by single digits, so Democrats must turn to more conservative states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, which he won by double digits, to seize a majority. Polls show the races in those states are close, but all are viewed as uphill climbs for Democrats—though a stronger generic ballot lead could put them in play.Republicans had a 55 percent chance on Kalshi and a 56 percent chance Polymarket of holding onto the Senate as of Thursday.The Cook Political Report classifies the Alaska, Maine, Michigan and Ohio races as tossups.How Have House Elections Gone in Recent Years?Republicans won control of the House in 2024 with less than a 2-point edge in the popular vote. They won 220 seats to the Democrats’ 215. In 2022, the GOP won the popular vote by just under 3 points, securing 222 seats to the Democrats’ 213.In 2018, the last blue wave, Democrats won 235 seats to the Republicans’ 199. They won the popular vote by nearly 9 points.Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Geoffrey Rowland