Drone Strike Near Suez: Is NATO on the Brink?
A drone strike against Egypt's Damietta port near the Suez Canal has brought the Mediterranean Sea closer to the U.S.-Iran war raging across the Middle East, risking another major disruption to global trade and stability that could spark new problems for NATO.The attack, which is yet unclaimed by any party, marks the first time such an incident has hit the northern approach to the Suez Canal as a renewed campaign by Iran's ally in Yemen, Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthi movement, has threatened to once again shutter Red Sea traffic from the south. Tehran, meanwhile, continues to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, throttling another critical waterway, in response to Washington's attacks.But the Mediterranean is not only a vital hub for commerce: It also represents NATO's southern flank. And the Suez Canal has been a particular point of interest for European members, with Egypt's 1956 nationalization of the canal sparking a joint U.K.-French invasion alongside Israel seven decades ago.Then, the U.S. and Soviet Union came together to demand a withdrawal by the three nations. Now, it's Washington that's calling on its European allies to aid in a regional conflict.NATO has been broadly reluctant to intervene in the U.S.-Israeli war launched against Iran in February, drawing stark criticism from President Donald Trump. Should the conflict further encroach on the bloc's area of responsibility, however, it could complicate this calculus, especially with threats already spilling over from the Russia-Ukraine war to the east."NATO remains focused on threats emanating from two directions—first and foremost, Russia, but secondly, instability from the south," John Deni, senior fellow at NATO Defense College and the Atlantic Council who has consulted for the U.S. military in Europe, told Newsweek. "In recent years, that southern threat has been conceived of primarily in terms of transnational terrorism.""However, NATO’s missile defense architecture has long been designed—especially in terms of where the radars (in Türkiye) and launchers (in Romania and Poland) are positioned—to deal with the threat from Iran, among others," he added.Should Iran be found responsible for the strike in Egypt, Deni warned, "this could represent a serious escalation and spur concerns among Europeans that the Iran war is coming closer to them, whether they want to be involved or not."...The Costs of Severing the SuezSome eight NATO nations have coastlines along the Mediterranean; nine to include the United Kingdom's control over Gibraltar. The expansive body of water has been a strategic theater since the early days of the Cold War, as NATO and the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact competed for influence.Russia's Mediterranean naval presence received renewed attention amid its 2015 intervention in the Syrian civil war in defense of President Bashar al-Assad, whose father granted Moscow naval basing rights in the 1970s. Following the ultimate downfall of Assad to a rebel blitz in December 2024, the status of Russia's only permanent Mediterranean port remains uncertain.As for NATO, its primary operations in the Mediterranean for the past decade have been coordinated via Operation Sea Guardian. The standing mission seeks to enhance maritime security, heighten readiness and combat illicit trafficking.But the threat posed by long-range drones has proved difficult even for NATO's heightened state of awareness since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022. Vulnerabilities have been most frequently demonstrated in the penetration of eastern borders by drones and missiles linked to Russia, such as occurred in Poland on Thursday amid a Russian bombardment of Ukraine.The Mediterranean has not been immune, either. In early March, just days into the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, loitering munitions—or suicide drones—reportedly launched by Iran targeted the Royal Air Force base in the U.K.-controlled region of Akrotiri in Cyprus, with one managing to penetrate interception efforts.A new threat to the Suez could prove even more disruptive given its unique status as the only direct link between the Red and Mediterranean Seas.Ansar Allah's previous efforts to disrupt maritime commerce in the Red Sea launched in response to the outbreak of the Gaza war in 2023 forced some two thirds of ships to reroute thousands of miles around South Africa's Cape of Good Hope. Ansar Allah paused operations only with the signing of the Israel-Hamas peace deal in October, but resumed strikes targeting Saudi-linked vessels this month as regional unrest only deepens."The Suez Canal is obviously a major thoroughfare for goods—about 30 percent of all global container traffic flows through it each year," Deni said. "As such, it’s as important for the global economy as the Strait of Hormuz is for energy markets around the world.""Capital flees insecurity and instability, and so threats to security and stability in places like the Red Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean mean that shippers and their insurers will prefer other routes or will demand higher rates," he added. "This has the potential to slow trade and drive up prices, as goods are rerouted or as prices rise to account for the increased risk of sending cargo through these regions."Karen Young, political economist serving as senior research scholar for the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, also pointed to the global effects of an expanding crisis."We have now three major chokepoints under threat in the Bab al-Mandab, Strait of Hormuz and Suez Canal, so global trade is at risk, though traffic through Suez never quite recovered from the earlier Houthi threats from several years ago," Young told Newsweek. "For energy security, this changes considerations of supply, storage, refining accessibility and energy fuel types," she said. "Weaker economies and importers are most exposed."...Will NATO Be Dragged Into Iran War?While NATO has largely resisted U.S. pressure for intervention against Iran and its allies, some countries have quietly contributed. The U.K. is by far the most active participant, allowing the U.S. to use bases in its mainland to conduct bombing, while other European members, such as France and Germany, are believed to be offering intelligence and logistical support.France and the U.K. have also contributed directly to air defense for Arab countries hosting U.S. military bases under Iranian attack in the Persian Gulf, while Spain—recently the most criticized European ally by Trump—has deployed a Patriot system to Turkey. The European Union, meanwhile, maintains a joint naval force in the Gulf of Aden, which lies between the Red and Arabian Seas.London and Paris have explored efforts to create a new multinational maritime security mission for the Strait of Hormuz, though such an operation would be "strictly defensive" in nature and only deploy once the conflict is settled. The U.K. appears more amenable to a new push by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for a wartime patrol, but other allies remain skeptical.Jamie Shea, former NATO deputy assistant secretary-general for emerging security challenges and now an expert with several Brussels-based think tanks, said that "the problem is that the President rarely gives the allies credit for what they are doing to help."He also pointed to "inconsistency" in the White House's messaging on the conflict, which has contributed to European reservations."On the one hand, Trump complains of a lack of NATO support in his war against Iran; but on the other hand, Secretary of War Hegseth constantly demands that the European allies provide more resources and take more responsibility for the defense of Eastern Europe as the U.S. draws down its forces in Europe and focuses on the Middle East and Asia," Shea told Newsweek. "You can’t have it both ways."It's a similar contradiction Europe faces on rearmament efforts, with Washington calling on transatlantic allies to boost their domestic military industrial capacities while simultaneously pushing for more purchases of U.S. weaponry. That problem is exacerbated by dwindling U.S. munitions stockpiles that European nations already fear may them leave exposed should the Russia-Ukraine war further cross the boundary.Questions also surround the long-term U.S. commitment to achieving strategic goals. When the U.K. joined in the U.S.-led operation to conduct strikes last year on Ansar Allah targets in Yemen during the group's effective maritime blockade of the Red Sea, the group pressed on, with the White House ultimately pausing strikes weeks later.That neither Trump nor Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appear willing to offer NATO states a say on the course of the conflict also factors into a lack of appetite for direct confrontation on the part of European members."NATO as such is highly unlikely to be dragged into the Middle East conflict and the U.S. or Israel are just as unlikely to want to share decision-making with the allies as is standard in true multinational operations," Shea said.Even if the European maritime mission manifests, NATO risks further exposing its Mediterranean front by spreading its naval presence precariously thin."If this materializes and is of long duration it could put a strain on NATO by diverting valuable warships from important NATO maritime missions in the Baltic, North Atlantic and Mediterranean (for instance patrolling the Russian shadow fleet or Russian intelligence gathering vessels)," Shea said. "NATO’s naval forces have declined in numbers significantly since the end of the Cold War and are now in high demand."...How the Crisis Could Get WorseThe strike on Damietta is not the only reminder in recent days that maritime traffic in otherwise peaceful seas is under threat.Over the weekend, Ukraine conducted unprecedented drone strikes against what it said were Russian ships engaged in trade with Iran in the Caspian Sea. Tehran said one of its cargo vessels was targeted, leading to the death of a sailor and raising concerns of a convergence between two major conflicts rocking the international order.Any such merging could risk an escalation on Russia's part, especially if NATO were to become increasingly enmeshed in the Mediterranean or other theaters of contested influence. After all, Moscow's 2015 decision to challenge Western aims in Syria and its subsequent Mediterranean build-up was partially motivated by the fate of one of its other Arab partners, longtime Libyan leader Muammar el-Qaddafi, who was slain by insurgents that received NATO air support in 2011.J.C. Lintzenich, former Pentagon official who is now visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S., doubted that NATO would shift its priorities in the short term. "Russia remains the Alliance’s principal military threat and maintaining deterrence along the eastern flank while sustaining support to Ukraine will continue to take precedence," Lintzenich told Newsweek.So, while the recent attack in Damietta remained "significant," he argued, the true "danger is not that this single incident will close the Suez Canal, but that repeated attacks could cause shipping companies, insurers, and energy markets to view the canal and its approaches as an increasingly contested environment.""A sustained threat spanning Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandab, and the Suez would place the principal maritime routes connecting Gulf energy supplies, Asian manufacturing, and European markets under simultaneous pressure," Lintzenich said. "That is how a regional conflict with Iran begins producing even greater global consequences; not through military escalation, but through sky-high energy prices, renewed inflationary pressure, supply chain disruptions, and uncertainty across the global economy."And once Europe's arterial channels to global energy trade face a sustained threat, he warned, the alliance may be forced to explore more proactive options despite the potential costs they may carry."While NATO’s military focus is unlikely to shift now," Lintzenich added, "should the economic consequences begin to approach a devastating level, and conflict spiral, it could shift the calculus."Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins.
